Awareness of COVID-19 at the Local Level: Perceptions and Political Consequences.

CONTEXT: While the COVID-19 pandemic has affected all Americans, the effects have not been equally distributed across geographic areas. These variations in the pandemic's severity-and public perceptions thereof-likely have political consequences. In this study, we examine the factors that shape perceptions of COVID-19 at the local level and assess the consequences of these perceptions for public opinion and political behaviors. METHODS: Using questions from the 2020 Cooperative Election Study (CES) linked with county-level COVID-19 rates, we examine predictors of respondents' perceptions of the severity of the pandemic in their county, including demographic, political, and informational characteristics. We also examine whether these perceptions are associated with public opinion and voter behavior. FINDINGS: Respondents' perceptions are correlated with actual case rates, although liberals and Democrats estimate the pandemic as more severe than Republicans and conservatives, as do CNN viewers compared to Fox News viewers. We found only limited evidence of a relationship between perceptions of the pandemic in a respondent's county and political outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Results add to accumulating evidence that both news media and political predispositions shape perceptions of COVID-19, but raise important questions about whether and how the pandemic has shaped, and will continue to shape, political outcomes.

Who does COVID-19 hurt most? Perceptions of unequal impact and political implications.

While the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on U.S. population health has been devastating, it has not affected everyone equally. The risks of hospitalization and death from the disease are relatively low for the population as a whole, but much higher for specific subpopulations defined by age, health status, and race or ethnicity. The extent to which Americans perceive these disparities is an open question, with potentially important political implications. Recognition of unequal impacts may prime concerns about justice and fairness, making Americans more concerned and willing to support government intervention. On the other hand, belief that the pandemic primarily threatens "other people" or out-groups may reduce, rather than increase, a person's concern. Partisanship and media consumption habits are also likely to play a role in these perceptions, as they do in most issues related to COVID-19. In this paper, we use original survey data from the Cooperative Election Study (N = 1000) to explore Americans' perceptions of which groups are most harmed by the pandemic, the demographic and political determinants of these perceptions, and the relationship of these perceptions with their opinions about COVID-related mitigation policy. We find that, on average, people perceived accurately that certain groups (e.g., Black Americans, older people) were more affected, but these group perceptions varied by demographic and political characteristics of respondents. We find, in contrast with recent experimental evidence, that the perception that populations of color were harmed was associated with more support for pandemic mitigation strategies. More research should investigate the relationships among pandemic politics and the racial dynamics of the target populations most affected.